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6

Thor's Lad

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 41

Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Charles Town 18/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 30 · 4f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark18/10/2024 · OR 30 par18/10C9OR 30C6 @ Charles Town 08/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 28 · 4f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/03/2026 · OR 28 parC9 @ Charles Town 18/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 23 · 4f110y 126 · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 23 par18/03C9OR 23C9 @ Charles Town 29/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 25 · 4f110y 126 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 25 parC9 @ Charles Town 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 29 · 4f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 29 par10/04C9OR 29C5 @ Charles Town 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 38 · 4f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 38 parC8 @ Charles Town 12/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 50 · 4f110y Gd 124 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 50 par12/06C8OR 50C8 @ Charles Town 05/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 35 · 4f110y Slo 124 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 35 parC8 @ Charles Town 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 31 · 4f110y 124 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 31 par2/08C8OR 31projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02Charles Town?3rd3rd0
2026-07-05Charles Town?7th7th0
2026-06-12Charles Town?9th9th0
2026-05-09Charles Town?7th4th+3
2026-04-10Charles Town?1st2nd−1
2026-03-29Charles Town?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1029/0312/062/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20243rd50/10%67%+0.67
08/03/20266th25/10%0%0.00
18/03/20264th25/10%25%+0.25
29/03/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
10/04/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
09/05/20267th40/10%0%0.00
12/06/20269th40/10%0%0.00
05/07/20267th40/10%0%0.00
02/08/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71