1
Angel Bella
4yo Filly · 8-0 · Draw 1 · OR 97
Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 89/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 26/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |