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4yo Filly · 8-4 · Draw 9 · OR 98

Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f

#10

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▲2

Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.5

Today:

Class gap: -1.5

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-21	Delaware Park	?	1st	4th	−3	6.0
2026-07-24	Delaware Park	?	2nd	5th	−3	5.0
2026-05-16	Delaware Park	?	3rd	6th	−3	4.0
2025-10-31	Gulfstream	?	7th	10th	−3	1.0
2025-09-20	Laurel Park	?	5th	7th	−2	3.2
2024-10-05	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength31%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/07/2024	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21
24/08/2024	1st	1/5	99%	100%	+0.01
05/10/2024	3rd	11/2	71%	67%	-0.04
20/09/2025	5th	4/1	79%	0%	-0.79
31/10/2025	7th	16/1	16%	14%	-0.02
16/05/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
24/07/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	83%	+0.46
21/08/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24