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11

Thea

5yo Mare · 8-8 · Draw 11 · OR 92

Delaware Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength3%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Oaklawn Park 20/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 89 · 1m 122 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 89 par20/12C8OR 89C5 @ Oaklawn Park 04/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 86 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 94 · 1m110y 118 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 94 par7/02C5OR 94C8 @ Oaklawn Park 26/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 91 · 1m110y 122 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 91 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 02/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 86 par2/04C6OR 86C7 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 88 · 1m110y 124 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 88 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 86 par7/06C7OR 86C7 @ Ellis Park 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 1m 123 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 89 parC7 @ Delaware Park 30/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 90 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark30/09/2026 · OR 90 par30/09C7OR 90projClass-projected finish: 10th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30Delaware Park?3rd5th−2
2026-07-06Ellis Park?1st3rd−2
2026-06-07Churchill Downs?2nd4th−2
2026-05-10Churchill Downs?1st3rd−2
2026-04-02Oaklawn Park?3rd4th−1
2026-02-26Oaklawn Park?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1226/027/0630/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1750% of fieldRange 9-17 · tight 66/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength24%

Delivery trend -12.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20252nd25/10%86%+0.86
04/01/20265th100/10%60%+0.60
07/02/20264th40/10%73%+0.73
26/02/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
02/04/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
10/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
07/06/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
06/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
30/09/20263rd11/1094%50%-0.44