Dominant Caitlin

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 41

Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

12%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼2

Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +2.0

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-15	Fairmount Park	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-09	Fairmount Park	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-05-16	Fairmount Park	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2024-11-03	Fairmount Park	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2024-10-08	Fairmount Park	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 44/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength20%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/10/2024	4th	2/1	89%	40%	-0.49
03/11/2024	3rd	9/4	88%	78%	-0.10
16/05/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	60%	+0.23
09/06/2026	7th	7/1	63%	0%	-0.63
15/09/2026	7th	5/1	74%	14%	-0.59