5
Elsie's Legacy
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 44
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength76%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |