My Mama Sez

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 31

Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

13%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼1

Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-05-26	Fairmount Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-05-10	Fairmount Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2025-04-26	Fairmount Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2024-10-08	Fairmount Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2024-07-23	Fairmount Park	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2024-06-25	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 53/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength18%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/06/2024	3rd	5/2	87%	50%	-0.37
25/06/2024	8th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
23/07/2024	8th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13
08/10/2024	5th	9/1	53%	20%	-0.33
26/04/2025	3rd	7/4	91%	50%	-0.41
10/05/2025	6th	7/2	82%	0%	-0.82
26/05/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	75%	+0.38