6
Rather Late
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 46
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 11/06/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 05/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/08/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |