IvyArcIvyArc
4

Heavens Hound

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 4 · OR 68

Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Oaklawn Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 6f 1128/02C9C9 @ Oaklawn Park 20/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 51 · 1m110y 117 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 51 parC9 @ Oaklawn Park 12/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m110y Fas 117 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 62 par12/03C9OR 62C9 @ Fairmount Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 42 · 5f110y Gd 120 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 42 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 49 · 6f 120 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par2/06C8OR 49C8 @ Fairmount Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 53 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 53 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 18/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 63 · 6f 118 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 63 par18/07C8OR 63C8 @ Fairmount Park 04/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 60 · 1m 120 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 60 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 6f 120 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 64 par29/08C8OR 64projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Fairmount Park?4th4th0
2026-08-04Fairmount Park?3rd3rd0
2026-07-18Fairmount Park?5th5th0
2026-06-20Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-06-02Fairmount Park?3rd3rd0
2026-05-16Fairmount Park?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0216/0518/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/02/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
20/02/20266th50/10%50%+0.50
12/03/202610th33/10%18%+0.18
16/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
02/06/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
20/06/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
18/07/20265th14/126%33%+0.07
04/08/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35
29/08/20264th14/126%57%+0.31