7
Karayel
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 47
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/04/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 10/06/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/09/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 04/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |