5
Lucky Destiny
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 59
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 06/04/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |