10
Lunarchy
6yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 10 · OR 66
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 24/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |