Nightwind
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 68
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |