1

Stronger Together

7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 74

Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Hawthorne 09/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 90 · 1m70y 122 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 90 par9/10C8OR 90C8 @ Fairmount Park 18/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 88 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 88 parC8 @ Hawthorne 30/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m70y 122 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 87 par30/10C8OR 87C8 @ Hawthorne 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 83 parC8 @ Hawthorne 14/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 1m70y Gd 123 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 81 par14/06C8OR 81C8 @ Hawthorne 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 81 · 1m70y Fas 123 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 04/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m70y 126 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 77 par4/08C8OR 77C8 @ Fairmount Park 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m70y Fas 124 · below its mark11/08/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 80 · 1m70y Fas 124 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 80 par12/09C8OR 80projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Fairmount Park?9th9th0
2026-08-11Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-08-04Fairmount Park?4th4th0
2026-07-19Hawthorne?2nd2nd0
2026-06-14Hawthorne?2nd2nd0
2026-06-04Hawthorne?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/104/064/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength35%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20254th7/282%40%-0.42
18/10/20253rd4/179%67%-0.12
30/10/20254th15/261%57%-0.03
04/06/20265th5/174%33%-0.40
14/06/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
19/07/20262nd11/893%80%-0.13
04/08/20264th7/163%63%-0.01
11/08/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00
12/09/20269th6/492%0%-0.92