6
El Jovero
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 62
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 20/08/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 01/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |