Holden Michael
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 48
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-07-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 13/04/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 27/04/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 18/05/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |