9
Stefan's Title
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 9 · OR 63
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -9.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |