Ballybay Beauty
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 60
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |