6
Jack's Yellow Rose
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 6 · OR 50
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |