Caution Cardinal
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 75
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Turf Paradise | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-03 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turf Paradise | BHA91 | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-01-21 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 03/04/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 24/04/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |