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5

Jimmies Big Day

7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 86

Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

41%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 88 · 6f 123 · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 88 par19/10C8OR 88C7 @ Gulfstream 30/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 92 · 7f Fas 119 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 92 parC7 @ Gulfstream 21/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 94 par21/02C7OR 94C8 @ Oaklawn Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 93 · 6f 120 · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 93 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 90 · 6f Slo 124 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 90 par16/04C8OR 90C7 @ Fairmount Park 12/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 89 · 5f110y 126 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 89 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 91 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 91 par30/05C6OR 91C6 @ Fairmount Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 87 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 87 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 84 par12/09C6OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Fairmount Park?2nd1st+1
2026-06-20Fairmount Park?2nd1st+1
2026-05-30Fairmount Park?5th4th+1
2026-05-12Fairmount Park?6th6th0
2026-04-16Oaklawn Park?1st2nd−1
2026-03-21Oaklawn Park?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1021/0330/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength72%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
30/01/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
21/02/20264th2/189%50%-0.39
21/03/20262nd11/893%86%-0.07
16/04/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
12/05/20266th7/282%17%-0.65
30/05/20265th1/195%60%-0.35
20/06/20262nd13/891%89%-0.03
12/09/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28