10
Purple Octopus
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 77
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |