3
We Miss Arlington
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 73
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |