11
Citizen Ex
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 41
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 12-12 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +12.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |