12
I'm Thisty Kid
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 12 · OR 61
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |