10
Lord Block
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 10 · OR 46
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |