9
Big D
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 9 · OR 68
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 10-12 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |