Brahms Jr.
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 60
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-06-17 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 03/09/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 03/11/2024 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 17/06/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/07/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 26/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |