Naughton
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 2 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -17.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 15/09/2026 | 8th | 6/5 | 94% | 13% | -0.81 |