10
Papa Geeb
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 42
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2023-07-27 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 71/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength25%
Delivery trend +12.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2023 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 14/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |