3
Young Mischief
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 57
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 83/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +17.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |