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7

El Peligro

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 80

Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairmount Park 03/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark03/06/2025 · OR 80 par3/06C8OR 80C8 @ Fairmount Park 12/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 6f Slo 124 · beat its mark12/08/2025 · OR 79 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 16/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 78 · 6f 126 · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 78 par16/09C8OR 78C8 @ Fairmount Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 126 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 76 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 28/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 6f 126 · below its mark28/10/2025 · OR 78 par28/10C8OR 78C8 @ Fairmount Park 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 01/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f 126 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 82 par1/08C6OR 82C8 @ Fairmount Park 25/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 79 · 6f 126 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 79 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 126 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 81 par12/09C6OR 81projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Fairmount Park?6th6th0
2026-08-25Fairmount Park?2nd4th−2
2026-08-01Fairmount Park?8th8th0
2026-07-07Fairmount Park?1st3rd−2
2025-10-28Fairmount Park?2nd4th−2
2025-10-04Fairmount Park?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/064/101/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength63%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/06/20253rd5/696%60%-0.36
12/08/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
16/09/20254th1/297%25%-0.72
04/10/20252nd11/893%83%-0.09
28/10/20252nd8/1597%86%-0.11
07/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
01/08/20268th6/168%22%-0.46
25/08/20262nd15/261%88%+0.27
12/09/20266th7/282%44%-0.37