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8

Excellent Empire

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 92

Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Hawthorne 22/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 69 · 6f Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2025 · OR 69 par22/05C5OR 69C6 @ Fairmount Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 72 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 72 · 5f 124 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 72 par21/04C8OR 72C8 @ Fairmount Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 66 · 5f110y Gd 126 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 66 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 70 par2/06C8OR 70C6 @ Fairmount Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 73 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 84 · 6f 124 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 84 par1/08C6OR 84C6 @ Fairmount Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 88 par12/09C6OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-08-01Fairmount Park?3rd3rd0
2026-06-20Fairmount Park?3rd3rd0
2026-06-02Fairmount Park?1st3rd−2
2026-05-16Fairmount Park?1st3rd−2
2026-04-21Fairmount Park?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0516/051/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 89/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20256th20/10%17%+0.17
04/10/20257th25/10%0%0.00
21/04/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
16/05/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
02/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
20/06/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25
01/08/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
12/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53