4
Great Sword
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 93
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · tight 74/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/12/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/01/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |