3
Q B Nine
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 90
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-07-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 06/05/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |