River Ridge
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 85
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-14 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-03-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-02-23 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 31/10/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 17/11/2024 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 23/02/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 12/03/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 24/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/06/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 14/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |