2
Harry Brown
9yo Gelding · 11-4
Fontainebleau · Prix De L'ecole Militaire D'equitation Cross Country Chase · 2m 6f 190y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Craon | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-06-10 | Craon | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-05-09 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 5th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2024-03-31 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2023-11-10 | Compiegne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2023-10-16 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2023 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/04/2023 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 18/05/2023 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 16/10/2023 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 10/11/2023 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 31/03/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 09/05/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 10/06/2024 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |