5
Novally
3yo Filly · 10-3
Fontainebleau · Prix De L'association Des Amis Du Musee Du Cheval Militaire Chase · 2m 1f 196y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength74%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Auteuil | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-02 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -33.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |
| 02/04/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |