2
Sail Rock
3yo Gelding · 10-12
Fontainebleau · Prix De L'association Des Amis Du Musee Du Cheval Militaire Chase · 2m 1f 196y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Dieppe | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Clairefontaine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Deauville | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 88/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +14.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 18/12/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 05/03/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 31% | -0.06 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |