2
Bel Eclat
4yo Gelding · 11-4
Fontainebleau · Prix D'amiens Claiming Chase · 2m 1f 196y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼8
Strength5%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: +7.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Clairefontaine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Clairefontaine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Clairefontaine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Dieppe | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 84/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |