Fortuna
5yo Filly · 11-7
Fontainebleau · Prix Exposition Paul Tavernier Chase · 2m 3f 30y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Clairefontaine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Compiegne | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-21 | Compiegne | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Auteuil | ? | 0 | ||
| 2024-10-28 | Fontainebleau | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2024 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 28/10/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 46% | -0.12 |