2
Sobest
5yo Gelding · 11-7
Fontainebleau · Prix Exposition Paul Tavernier Chase · 2m 3f 30y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength25%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Craon | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Clairefontaine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Clairefontaine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Clairefontaine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Clairefontaine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 02/05/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.31 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 79% | +0.36 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |