1
Broadway Honey
6yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 96
Fontwell · KSR Lighting Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 210y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
49%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Warwick | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Warwick | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Hereford | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Ludlow | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 64/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength87%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 56% | +0.00 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 25/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 25/03/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |