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2

McGregors Charge

8yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 79

Fontwell · KSR Lighting Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 210y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened account in 3m handicap at Perth last summer (for Ella Pickard) and went close in this year's renewal of the same race. Hasn't been in the same form last 2 starts, finishing a remote third of 6 at Newton Abbot (21f) 15 days ago, but is at least back down to his winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Perth 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 2m7f180y Gd 148 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 79 par16/085OR 795 @ Stratford 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 2m6f125y Goo 154 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 85 par5 @ Newton Abbot 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 3m1f170y Goo 159 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 85 par19/095OR 854 @ Taunton 22/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 2m7f198y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 82 par5 @ Newton Abbot 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 3m1f170y Goo 156 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 85 par3/075OR 855 @ Newton Abbot 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 3m1f170y Goo 147 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 82 par5 @ Perth 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 2m7f180y Gd 147 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 79 par15/085OR 795 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 81 · 2m4f216y Gd 156 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 81 par5 @ Newton Abbot 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 2m4f216y Gd 152 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 81 par18/095OR 81projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newton Abbot53rd3rd0
2026-09-07Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-08-15Perth52nd2nd0
2026-07-19Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-07-03Newton Abbot55th5th0
2026-04-22Taunton47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0822/0415/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength44%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
06/09/20253rd3/184%75%-0.09
19/09/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
22/04/20267th9/276%0%-0.76
03/07/20265th10/382%33%-0.49
19/07/20264th15/261%50%-0.11
15/08/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
07/09/20264th3/184%25%-0.59
18/09/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23