4
Watchoutitscookie
8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 69
Fontwell · KSR Lighting Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 210y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Stratford | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hexham | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Exeter | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 3-4 · tight 78/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 17/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 19/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 07/06/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |