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5

Alfred Spero

4yo Gelding · 11-1

Fontwell · Finbarr OSullivan 21st Carpe Diem Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y

#4

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest Flat winner (stays 12.5f) who justified strength in the betting when making final start for Gemma Tutty a winning one in handicap at Southwell (11f) in January. Changed hands for 10,000 gns thereafter but he will need to settle better than he has on occasions now hurdling. Hooded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 12/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Std 12912/0645 @ Southwell 17/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m13y Std 1305 @ Newcastle 08/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m5y Sta 1308/0956 @ Newcastle 28/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m4f98y Std 128 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Ayr 09/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m5f26y Hvy 127 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 55 par9/106OR 556 @ Newcastle 24/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 1m4f98y Std 130 · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 55 par5 @ Kempton 17/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m3f219y Sta 122 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 54 par17/125OR 545 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 54 · 1m4f98y Std 120 · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Southwell 22/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 1m3f23y Std 132 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 54 par22/016OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-01-22Southwell61st3rd−2
2025-12-29Newcastle52nd3rd−1
2025-12-17Kempton55th6th−1
2025-11-24Newcastle63rd5th−2
2025-10-09Ayr69th11th−2
2025-09-28Newcastle64th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0628/0917/1222/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20259th50/10%27%+0.27
17/08/20259th100/10%33%+0.33
08/09/20254th66/10%40%+0.40
28/09/20254th11/142%77%+0.35
09/10/20259th11/486%11%-0.74
24/11/20253rd6/492%75%-0.17
17/12/20255th33/10%60%+0.60
29/12/20252nd9/153%88%+0.35
22/01/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06