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4yo Gelding · 11-1

Fontwell · Finbarr OSullivan 21st Carpe Diem Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful on Flat (stays 14.5f) who posted one of his better efforts when second at Salisbury in May. Below that level on final 2 starts this summer for Ralph Beckett but has since joined another good yard ahead of hurdles debut and interesting if supported in the betting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 23/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 1m2f Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/10/2024 · OR 91 par23/102OR 913 @ York 15/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m3f188y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2025 · OR 93 par2 @ Doncaster 07/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m6f115y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 92 par7/062OR 922 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 91 · 1m7f169y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Kempton 28/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 91 · 1m7f218y Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 91 par28/032OR 913 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 90 · 2m32y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 88 · 1m6f44y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 88 par14/053OR 883 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 89 · 2m13y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 88 · 1m6f34y GF 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 88 par11/073OR 88projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Ascot35th4th+1
2026-05-31Thirsk37th6th+1
2026-05-14Salisbury32nd1st+1
2026-04-15Beverley35th4th+1
2026-03-28Kempton25th3rd+2
2026-02-27Lingfield25th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1027/0214/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20242nd5/696%80%-0.16
15/05/20258th3/184%0%-0.84
07/06/20255th11/142%56%+0.13
27/02/20265th5/287%43%-0.44
28/03/20265th13/266%50%-0.16
15/04/20265th5/493%0%-0.93
14/05/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
31/05/20267th11/271%50%-0.21
11/07/20265th20/10%20%+0.20