Down To Business
4yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 114
Fontwell · Finbarr OSullivan 21st Carpe Diem Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Worcester | 2 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Ludlow | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Ascot | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-17 | Newbury | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 20/07/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/09/2026 | 13th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |