Eben Zaabeel
5yo Gelding · 11-9
Fontwell · Finbarr OSullivan 21st Carpe Diem Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 12.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | BHA69 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | BHA72 | 10th | 14th | −3 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA76 | 11th | 15th | −4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Cork | BHA79 | 14th | 19th | −4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 10th | 15th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 03/09/2024 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |
| 02/10/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 05/04/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 24/04/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/05/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 31/05/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |