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8

Moscow Star

4yo Gelding · 11-1

Fontwell · Finbarr OSullivan 21st Carpe Diem Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y

#7

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest form in a trio of bumpers during second half of last season and he was below that level when tenth of 14 in a C&D novice on hurdles bow when last seen 5 months ago. Best watched on the back of that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 19/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 2m Sta 14319/0155 @ Doncaster 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m128y Sft 15628/0255 @ Chepstow 02/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m16y Goo 1492/0454 @ Fontwell 06/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 2m1f162y Goo 1506/054projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-06Fontwell410th10th0
2026-04-02Chepstow54th5th−1
2026-02-28Doncaster55th6th−1
2026-01-19Lingfield55th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0128/022/046/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 41/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +22.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/01/20265th17/255%20%-0.35
28/02/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
02/04/20264th28/10%70%+0.70
06/05/202610th25/10%31%+0.31